Abstract CUPID is a next-generation bolometric experiment to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay ( $$0\nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β ) of 100 Mo using Li $$_2$$ 2 MoO $$_4$$ 4 scintillating crystals. It will operate 1596 crystals at $$\sim $$ ∼ 10 mK in the CUORE cryostat at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso in Italy. Each crystal will be facing two Ge-based bolometric light detectors for $$\alpha $$ α rejection. We compute the discovery and the exclusion sensitivity of CUPID to $$0\nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β in a Frequentist and a Bayesian framework. This computation is done numerically based on pseudo-experiments. For the CUPID baseline scenario, with a background and an energy resolution of $$1.0 \times 10^{-4}$$ 1.0 × 10 - 4 counts/keV/kg/yr and 5 keV FWHM at the Q-value, respectively, this results in a Bayesian exclusion sensitivity (90% c.i.) of $$\hat{T}_{1/2} > 1.6 \times 10^{27} \ \textrm{yr}$$ T ^ 1 / 2 > 1.6 × 10 27 yr , corresponding to the effective Majorana neutrino mass of $$\hat{m}_{\beta \beta } < \ 9.6$$ m ^ β β < 9.6 – $$28 \ \textrm{meV}$$ 28 meV . The Frequentist discovery sensitivity (3 $$\sigma $$ σ ) is $$\hat{T}_{1/2}= 1.0 \times 10^{27} \ \textrm{yr}$$ T ^ 1 / 2 = 1.0 × 10 27 yr </mml:mro